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Cash On Cash Return
Are You Going to Pay Your Investors Back on Time? The Math Every Restaurant Owner Should Run
Ryan
Short answer: Divide what you still owe your investors by the months left to your goal. That's the monthly amount you need. Then compare it to the free cash you've really had for payback over the last 3 months, after loan and advance repayments and before any new investor money. If free cash is lower, you're behind, and a monthly payback plan you can show your investors is the next step.
By the FIXE team. October 2026.
Key takeaways
- Start with 3 numbers: what's left to pay back, the monthly amount that gets you there on time, and the months it'll take at today's pace.
- Free cash for payback is cash from operations minus financing repayments, before any investor top-up.
- A bank balance that's up can hide a problem if investors put more money in.
- Revenue-based advances, equipment loans and dining-rewards financing come out of the same cash you'd use to pay investors back.
- A 13-week cash forecast and a set monthly payback amount turn a worry into a plan.
Are you going to pay your investors back on time?
It's the question a lot of owners carry around and don't say out loud, especially when you're 0 to 3 years open. Your investors believed in you. You gave them a timeline. And every month the P&L shows up without telling you whether you're still on it.
You can answer it with simple math. Here's how, using a sample restaurant.
Meet the sample: Ember & Rye
Ember & Rye (sample) is a one-location neighborhood bistro that opened in April 2024, backed by investors. The numbers below come from its September 2026 Financial Review, prepared by FIXE in October 2026.
Sample restaurant and numbers, made up for illustration.
Its investors put in $400,000. The goal was to pay it back within 5 years of opening, by April 2029. So far it's paid back $36,000, which leaves $364,000 with 30 months to go.
What are the 3 numbers your investors will ask about?
| The number | What it tells you | Ember & Rye (sample) |
|---|---|---|
| Money left to pay back | What investors put in, minus what you've paid back so far | $364,000 |
| Monthly amount needed | What you have to set aside every month to hit your goal date | $12,133 a month |
| Months to payback at today's pace | How long it takes if nothing changes | About 66 months |
If you can say these three out loud, you can have an honest conversation with your investors. Here's where each one comes from.
How do you figure the monthly payback amount?
Take what's left and divide it by the months left to your goal.
Try this math: monthly amount needed = money left to pay back / months left to the goal. Example: Ember & Rye (sample) has $364,000 left and 30 months to go. $364,000 / 30 = $12,133 a month.
How much free cash do you really have for payback?
Free cash for payback is cash from operations minus financing repayments, before any money investors add. Use the last 3 months, not your best month.
| Month (sample) | Free cash for payback |
|---|---|
| July | $9,800 |
| August | $14,600 |
| September | Negative $7,900 |
| 3-month average | $5,500 a month |
Sample restaurant and numbers, made up for illustration.
Ember & Rye (sample) needs $12,133 a month and has averaged $5,500. At $5,500 a month, payback takes about 66 months, or about 5.5 years from now. That's roughly 3 years past the goal.
That's not a reason to panic. It's a reason to make a plan now, while there are still 30 months to work with.
Why can cash look fine when payback is falling behind?
Here's the sample restaurant's cash in September:
- Started the month at $41,200
- Operations brought in $1,900
- Financing repayments took out $9,800
- Investors added $25,000
- Ended the month at $58,300
The bank balance went up. The restaurant didn't earn that. Cash rose only because investors put more in. If you only check your balance, a month like this feels fine, and it's exactly the month you need to look closer.
How do financing repayments eat your payback cash?
In September, the sample restaurant's $9,800 in financing repayments was $7,300 on a revenue-based advance and $2,500 on an equipment loan. Operations brought in $1,900. That's how free cash for payback ended up at negative $7,900.
Revenue-based advances, equipment loans and dining-rewards financing all come out of the same cash you'd use to pay your investors back. Advances that come out of your sales automatically are the easiest to lose track of, because you never write a check. Before you take on more, put every repayment in one place and see what's left.
How do you build a 13-week cash forecast?
A 13-week cash forecast is a week-by-week view of the cash coming in and going out. It doesn't need to be fancy:
- List the next 13 weeks. One column per week.
- Add what's coming in. Expected sales deposits, based on recent weeks.
- Add what's going out. Payroll, vendor payments, rent and every financing repayment.
- Add your payback amount. Set a monthly number and spread it across the weeks.
- Update it every week. Swap in what really happened, and you'll see trouble weeks before it hits your bank account.
What should you do this month?
For Ember & Rye (sample), the action plan for October says: build the 13-week cash forecast, send investors an update with the payback plan, and set a monthly payback amount.
Then find the cash in the restaurant itself. In September, prime cost ran $8,936 over its 60% target, and every point of prime cost was worth $1,754 a month. Payroll ran $9,268 over a 30% target. That's where payback money can hide: in costs you only see once someone lays them out. See the 7 things a monthly expert review catches, and if you've been carrying this math by yourself, read why you shouldn't have to read your P&L alone.
Frequently asked questions
How do I know if I'll pay my investors back on time?
Divide what's left to pay back by the months left to your goal to get the monthly amount you need. Compare it to your average free cash for the last 3 months. If free cash is lower, you're behind pace.
What counts as free cash for investor payback?
Cash from operations minus financing repayments, like revenue-based advances and equipment loans, before any new money from investors. It's what you could really send back each month.
Why is my bank balance up if I'm behind on payback?
Cash can rise because investors added money, not because the restaurant earned it. Look at where the cash came from: operations, financing repayments and investor top-ups.
What is a 13-week cash forecast?
A week-by-week plan of the cash coming in and going out for the next 13 weeks, including payroll, vendors, rent and financing repayments. It shows what you can set aside for investors before you commit to it.
What should I tell my investors if I'm behind?
Send an update with your payback plan: where you stand, the monthly amount you're setting aside, and what you're changing in the restaurant to close the gap.
Is your restaurant on track to pay back its investors?
The FIXE Expert Review covers cash flow and financing every month and ends with a 30-day action plan with targets, so the payback question gets answered with your real numbers, not a guess. This is what FIXE customers get. See how the FIXE Expert Review works, then ask about it on your first call.
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This post is part of our Costs, Inventory and Cash Flow guide.
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